Most lethal year for terrorism in a decade

Global terrorism risk rises as terrorists target tourists and public gatherings with shootings and bombings. Annual Terrorism and Political Violence Map published by Aon Risk Solutions.

Aon Risk Solutions, the global risk management business of Aon, has launched its annual Terrorism and Political Violence Map.

This highlights that 2015 was the most lethal year for terrorist violence in Europe in nearly a decade as terrorists increasingly target tourists, private citizens and public gatherings. The risk ratings of 18 countries saw an increase.

For the first time since Aon and The Risk Advisory Group jointly began collecting empirical data to create the map in 2007, shootings have overtaken bombings in the western world, while the targeting of civilians and tourists in public spaces has become more commonplace. Since January 2015, one in three of all attacks in the western world targeted private citizens and public gatherings.

Islamic State dominates, as the group entered a more aggressive phase of mounting mass casualty attacks in 2015 and early 2016, with the USA, France, Turkey and Belgium all affected. The organisation’s activities have contributed to sustaining or increasing risk levels in more than a dozen countries worldwide. Far-right activism and the increasing influence of extremist parties have also driven rating increases.

The most business threatening political violence risks continue to emerge from war and sudden changes in government control, such as those that occur through coups d’état. 2016 demonstrates increasing regional instability and a growing spectrum of potential risks.

The country risk scores and identified perils are based upon analysis of proprietary empirical data from the preceding year, open source intelligence analysis on the intentions and capabilities of relevant actors, as well as more systemic prevailing trends affecting security and stability around the world.

For each country a score on a five-point scale reflects the severity of risk on a wide range of political risk and security variables, including terrorism and sabotage; riots, strikes, civil commotion and malicious damage; and insurrection, revolution, rebellion, mutiny, coup d’état, war and civil war.

Most active countries for terrorist attacks in 2015:

  • Iraq (845)
  • Afghanistan (312)
  • Pakistan (290)
  • Egypt (257)
  • Turkey (214)
  • Colombia (189)
  • India (170)
  • Nigeria (132)
  • Thailand (131)