Global travel trends: 4 billion in 2024, says IATA

The February update from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) states that in 2021, overall traveller numbers were 47% of 2019 levels, and expects this to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.  In terms of international numbers, in 2021 these were 27% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025.

Their update states there are improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets. Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future.  The country’s localised lock-downs in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the US are largely back to normal.

• Asia-Pacific: The slow removal of international travel restrictions and the likelihood of renewed domestic restrictions during COVID outbreaks, mean that traffic to/from/within Asia Pacific will only reach 68% of 2019 levels in 2022, the weakest outcome of the main regions. 2019 levels should be recovered in 2025 (109%) due to a slow recovery on international traffic in the region.
• Europe: In the next few years, the intra-Europe market is expected to benefit from passenger preferences for short-haul travel as confidence rebuilds. Total passenger numbers to/from/within Europe are expected to reach 86% of 2019 values in 2022, before making a full recovery in 2024 (105%).
• North America: After a resilient 2021, traffic to/from/within North America will continue to perform strongly in 2022 as the US domestic market returns to pre-crisis trends, and with improvements in international travel. In 2022, passenger numbers will reach 94% of 2019 levels, and full recovery is expected in 2023 (102%), ahead of other regions.
• Africa: Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are somewhat weaker in the near-term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the population, and the impact of the crisis on developing economies. Passenger numbers to/from/within Africa will recover more gradually than in other regions, reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025 (101%).
• Middle East: With limited short-haul markets, the Middle East focus on long-haul connectivity through its hubs is expected to result in slower recovery. Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected to reach 81% of 2019 levels in 2022, 98% in 2024 and 105% in 2025.
• Latin America: Traffic to/from/within Latin America has been relatively resilient during the pandemic and is forecast to see a strong 2022, with limited travel restrictions and dynamic passenger flows within the region and to/from North America. 2019 passenger numbers are forecast to be surpassed in 2023 for Central America (102%), followed by South America in 2024 (103%) and the Caribbean in 2025 (101%).